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Objects in mirror may be closer than they appear: the "bad" teams that should be better next season even without major moves
For each, this year's record may not be the most indicative sign. Here are five sub .500 teams that should expect better results even if they just rolled it back with the current core in tact.
This may feel like cheating because most of us presume the Trail Blazers were better than that 35-39 record. Still, they qualify for this honor as a team that may be able to add 5+ wins for next season.
Last season, the Blazers struggled for two primary reasons: a lack of depth and a lack of defense. Both of those should be aided by a return to health. Jusuf Nurkic should be back at 100% after only playing 8 regular season games last year. Wings Rodney Hood and Trevor Ariza will also return; neither are world-beaters but they're both capable veterans. The team should finally trust Gary Trent Jr. to play 30 minutes a night as well after he proved himself as a reliable 3+D player in the bubble.
Bringing back those reinforcements will also help Portland avoid "bad minutes." The Blazers actually had 2 players finish in the top 5 of our informal "Least Valuable Player" trophy. We didn't list Carmelo Anthony in those rankings, but his defensive limitations contributed to the team finishing 28th on that end. No one's expecting them to turn into the Bad Boy Pistons, but their goal should be improving that ranking back into the top 20. If they can do that, they should have a winning record.
predicted record: 38-34 over the expected 72 games, 8th seed
The Phoenix Suns were the bubble boys of Orlando, famously winning 8 in a row prior to their departure from the Magic Kingdom.
Still, we shouldn't view that breakout as a fleeting fantasy. Coach Monty Williams and PG Ricky Rubio were a stabilizing force for the franchise and helped them look like a mid-pack team even prior to that 8-0 stretch. And by my estimation, the 8-0 wasn't a complete fluke either. With Kelly Oubre injured, the team gave heavier minutes to young 3+D forwards Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson. Those two are great low-usage players to complement Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton.
Maybe these Suns will be the same ol' Suns again and find new ways to stink, but there's a real chance that a prolonged breakout is coming. If they make a splashy move (like a Chris Paul trade) they may accelerate that process, but it may not be necessary. Young teams can bolt up the standings in a hurry. The Embiid-Simmons Sixers jumped from 28-54 to 52-30 one season later. The KD-Westbrook Thunder jumped from 23-59 to 50-32 one season later. I wouldn't anticipate THAT type of Carl Lewis leap from the Suns, but they may turn the corner and transform into a playoff staple (although the West will make that difficult.)
predicted record: 37-35 over the expected 72 games, 9th seed
This season, Vegas listed the Dallas Mavericks oveunder at 40.5 (over 82 games), which was an aggressive number for a team that won 33 games the prior year. Turns out: it wasn't aggressive enough. Thanks largely to Luka Doncic's brilliant sophomore season, the team went 43-32 (a 47-win pace.)
I wouldn't count on the same leap for Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans, but we can't rule it out entirely. Williamson looked like a dominant (offensive) force when he first returned to action. We're talking about a kid who averaged 29.1 points per 36 minutes -- as a ROOKIE. He's nearly unstoppable when he's inside the paint. Of course, he eventually fell victim to poor health and poor conditioning again, a problem that affected him most on the defensive end.
The boom/bust potential of Williamson makes the entire team a boom/bust proposition. To be fair, the team as a whole isn't half bad. In fact, New Orleans finished with an SRS (schedule adjusted power ranking) of 15th this year, ahead of Portland. They may be able to flirt with .500 with Zion Williamson in and out of the lineup. But if he can lock in and be reliable for 30 minutes a night, then they have true playoff potential. Of course, trading Jrue Holiday for picks would represent an immediate setback and a sign that the team feels like they're several years away.
predicted record: 36-36 over the expected 72 games, 10th seed
The young Chicago Bulls may have to look into therapy or memory erasure to wipe clean the Jim Boylen era and find happiness again. After earning some darkhorse 8th seed buzz in the preseason, they flopped with a 22-43 record overall.
Still, this team doesn't feel THAT far away to me. Their bad record can be blamed on a few issues that should be improved next season. Coach Billy Donovan should be an upgrade on Boylen, especially in terms of the offensive end. Getting 3+D Otto Porter back should also help out. Porter only played 14 games last season, but he can offer some much-needed size and shooting at the SF spot (and shouldn't be traded so willingly.)
The last issue that plagued the Bulls' W-L record last year may be a trickier one to fix. Rookie guard Coby White was a bright spot for the fan base, showcasing real scoring instincts. Still, he didn't play a particularly "winning" brand of basketball. He didn't score efficiently (50.6% true shooting) and he didn't play good defense (-3.4 in RPM, ranking 82nd of 95 point guards.) Going forward, the Bulls will need some real improvements here if they intend to make him a building block.
One potential elixir would be to draft (and potentially "reach") on Iowa State PG Tyrese Haliburton with the # 4 pick. Haliburton has a long frame (6'5" with a 7'0" wingspan) and the ability to guard several positions. In a sense, he can be like Kris Dunn with better shooting. Haliburton also doesn't need the ball in his hands often, which makes him a great fit alongside either Zach LaVine or Coby White. You'd never expect a rookie to be a good player out of the gate, but Haliburton can be helpful in that limited role. If that 4th pick (be it Haliburton or Deni Avdija or Onyeka Okongwu or whomever) can give the team decent minutes like that, it should help boost them a few extra wins.
predicted record: 33-39 over the expected 72 games, 8th seed
predicted record: 43-29 over the expected 72 games, 4th seed
Official r/NFL Week 7 Power Rankings
|1.||Chiefs||--||6-1||Drew Lock returned home to Kansas City and subsequently got grounded and scolded by the Chiefs. The Chiefs turned in touchdowns from all three phases of the game thanks to a Daniel Sorensen Pick-6 and a Byron Pringle kickoff return touchdown. There is still something off with the offense, as they failed to convert on a 3rd down all game, but it didn't matter much against a Broncos team that looked outmatched on offense and was fumbling over themselves trying to turnover the ball to the Chiefs. This upcoming week is "let Le'Veon get revenge" week as the Chiefs host the flailing, pitiful Jets.|
|2.||Steelers||+2||6-0||Are Pittsburgh the best team in the NFL because they're the last undefeated team? Ask yourself this: Are they the biggest bully on the block? With the Patriots dismantled, the Bills are in position to win the AFCE, the AFCN is still very much in play, the Titans are fantastic and the Chiefs are back on track. The Steelers have shown they can beat bad teams as well as good teams. Now they just have to fight for king of the hill. Their reign at the top of the standings may be short @BAL this week, but a win there would put the bullseye squarely on their back. Holding off the talented Titans @TEN wasn't pretty, but gives hope to the fans that a win in Baltimore is possible.|
|3.||Ravens||--||5-1||Yannick for a third and a fifth is the closest you can get to winning a bye week...|
|4.||Seahawks||-2||5-1||SOMEBODY EXPLAIN HOW EXACTLY THIS IS A PENALTY. ARIZONA IS A STUPID NAME. FUCK ARIZONA.|
|5.||Buccaneers||+2||5-2||The Buccaneers have won 5 of their last 6 and are playing to near perfection on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady lit the Raiders up for a 4 TD performance, Gronk looks to be back to his normal self, and rookie RT Tristan Wirfs is putting on a season to remember. Most impressively, the Bucs rushing defense is allowing a mere 66 yards per game (even after matching up against CMC, Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery). That would put them on pace for 1,070 rushing yards allowed-- firmly in contention with the record set by the 2000 Ravens (970 yards allowed). Next up: the 1-6 New York Football Giants, led by dual-threat extraordinaire Daniel Jones.|
|6.||Packers||--||5-1||Friendly reminder that Jaire Alexander has shadowed Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, and WIll Fuller in his last three games and did not allow a catch to any of them. All around the defense looked a helluva lot better today than they have all season despite still having a couple starters injured, only allowing one sustained scoring drives before garbage time in the 4th quarter. Aaron had a great bounce back performance, Tae was better than ever, and the offense largely returned to form despite missing Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari. Only blemish was special teams but when is that not a blemish with the Packers? Great game in general and hope to continue that against the Vikings next week|
|7.||Titans||-2||5-1||The Titans, somehow had a chance to take the game against the Steelers into overtime on Sunday after falling behind 27-7 in the 3rd quarter. The Titans allow a league high 61% conversion rate on 3rd downs and this continued in the game against the Steelers, allowing them to covert 13 of 18 3rd downs.|
|8.||Cardinals||+5||5-2||Russel Wilson hadn't lost a game in Arizona since he played the Patriots in 2015, before that it was his first NFL game. The heart Murray and his teammates showed led to one of the most exciting games of 2020 so far. Not only did they manage to come back from 10 down late in regulation, they also pulled off a win no one would have thought was possible after a huge coaching blunder and missed field goal late in OT. The team will be on their bye week followed by 3 AFC East matchups in 4 weeks, with... another primetime matchup against Seattle in between.|
|9.||Rams||--||5-2||If you don't have a lead against the Rams heading into the half, its over. Their defense has only allowed 26 points in the second half this season and only 12 during the last 4 games.|
|10.||Bills||-2||5-2||The Buffalo Bills defense was able to hold the Jets to 10, and the offense saw 6 scoring drives*! With a much-needed win, the Bills now move to 5-2 and further their lead in the AFCE heading into an important divisional matchup against New England. Fortunately, the Patriots don’t look anywhere close to the dominant force they’ve been in years past. With that being said, this team needs to finish drives (and not get shafted by refs on ticky-tack illegal formation calls ) if they’re going to win this game. *number of points scored notwithstanding|
|11.||Saints||+1||4-2||The Saints marched into the Superdome after spending the bye studying harder than Hypatia. The bye week was anything but restful with Michael Thomas continuing to be a question mark and a COVID scare. The latter meant Emmanuel Sanders was unavailable for the game, but Drew Brees continues to show he's a wily QB who can make something out of nothing with an efficient where 8 different receivers caught the ball. This win means the Saints haven't lost since September.|
|12.||49ers||+4||4-3||The 49ers dominated from kickoff, delivering the Patriots their worst home loss in Bill Belichick's tenure. While the final score is something to celebrate, injuries are again starting to pile up- both Jeff Wilson Jr and Deebo Samuel came up lame and will miss the showdown with the Seahawks on Sunday.|
|13.||Browns||+2||5-2||Why waste time throw lot yard first quarter when few later do trick? The Browns lost OBJ for the season with a ACL injury making it the second major loss of personnel for the season but still managed to squeak out a win in a very competitive AFC North. The Browns will face the 3-3 LA Raiders before heading into a bye.|
|14.||Bears||-4||5-2||Late in the third, the Bears lined up for a crucial 4th down play and used misdirection with a wide receiver to mask a handoff to another wide receiver who was tackled for a loss when a lineman whiffed a block. The Rams were able to do anything they wanted on defense and they blew up Chicago’s “offense” again and again. Silver lining: Eddie Jackson finally got his touchdown!|
|15.||Colts||-1||4-2||An early season bye should help the Colts get some much needed rest. Seeing all three of their division rivals lose had to have been fun for Colts fans.|
|16.||Raiders||-5||3-3||Raiders defense since Paul Guenther became defensive coordinator: 2018: PPG: 29.2 (last), YPG: 381.4 (26th), Takeaways: 17 (T-22nd). 2019: PPG: 26.2 (24th), YPG: 354.8 (19th), Takeaways: 15 (31st). 2020: PPG: 32.8 (31st), YPG: 403.7 (25th), Takeaways: 3 (T-Last). The Raiders have a top tier offense but are being brought down by a horrendous defense. It's time to move on from Pauly G.|
|17.||Dolphins||+1||3-3||The bye week went pretty well for Miami, as they announced a change at QB, came out looking better for their run at the Wild Card despite not playing at all, and saw multiple undefeated teams lose, protecting that record. The rebuild isn't done, but if Tua can show up like the team thinks he can, then this year is not just another afterthought.|
|18.||Chargers||+2||2-4||The Chargers collapsed earlier than scheduled, but it gave them time to come back and actually win this one. It's not the best case scenario but its better than losing the game late every week. Also you may or may not have heard of this Justin Herbert kid by now, but sources say he's pretty darn good.|
|19.||Panthers||--||3-4||Slye missing a 65 yard field goal by inches sums this game up well, but there is still plenty of upside going forward. Even with McCaffrey looking less likely to play, expect a second tough rivalry game is an many weeks.|
|20.||Lions||+2||3-3||Vintage Matthew Stafford. This matchup was perfect to revitalize the 2016 comeback KING. Thanks to Gurley scoring a touchdown late in the game, he gave the Lions enough time (64 seconds) to march down the field and win the game. The "simplified" defense is allowing Matt Patricia/Cory Undlin to actually be creative with disguising the pass rush, and concepts. This kept Todd Gurley to only 2.7 YPC, but two touchdowns (one of which being a massive mistake). The secondary is starting to come into it's own as well, doing well to contain Julio as he was the biggest threat to a Lions W. The Lions have back to back wins, with this one a little harder to write off as the Falcons are much better than their record. The Colts are next, and will establish if the Lions are contenders or pretenders.|
|21.||Patriots||-4||2-4||The Patriots are 2-4. Both sides of the ball look cooked and the QB seems to still be suffering neurological symptoms of the novel coronavirus.|
|22.||Broncos||-1||2-4||Know much about purgatory? It's the place between heaven and hell, where those who were left behind, unable to get into heaven continue to suffer, a place of struggle and pain. In other words, the world the Broncos are in now.|
|23.||Eagles||+1||2-4-1||In a contest that can only be summed up as "who wants to lose?" the Eagles landed a miracle finish to advance to... 2 wins on the season, and 1st place in the NFC East which currently boasts an impressive -184 point differential across all 4 "teams."|
|24.||Vikings||+3||1-5||Despite being highly favored to not lose during the bye week, the Vikings still found a way by trading away Yannick Ngakoue at a discount and by every team ahead of the Vikings in the current draft order finding a way to lose.|
|25.||Texans||-2||1-6||The Texans continue to provide star players on opposing teams with the opportunity to set career records, which is great for everyone who isn't a Texans fan. The big question on everyone mind is "why do they keep giving David Johnson the ball" and "why did we trade Hopkins for this guy". Hopefully someone finds a good answer during the bye week, but I don't think there's any expectation that'll happen.|
|26.||Bengals||+2||1-5-1||Joe Burrow threw for over 400 yards and led two 4th quarter go ahead TD drives, including one with just 66 seconds left in the game, yet no one is talking about any of that because the Bengals defense played like potatoes and made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Progressive booked Baker for 6 more commercials just because of that game. If the Bengals front office does not fire Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo this week then it's clear that they don't care about winning.|
|27.||Falcons||-1||1-6||Raheem Morris decided Martyrdom is how he'd like to be remembered, cooling Matt Patricia's seat and incinerating his own in the process. What's left of Todd Gurley's cartilage couldn't stop him from scoring, the defense couldn't stop side-arm Stafford from slinging seventy yards in as many seconds, and their issues are a little too predictable. The familiar feeling of another blown lead in almost as many losses doesn't sting less than any of the others.|
|28.||Washington FT||+1||2-5||It's clear that Kyle Allen, while not being great is far and away the best option at QB currently on this roster. The offense resembles that of a professional football team with Kyle Allen and that might be enough to at least keep this them in some games. I can't believe I'm saying this but at 2-5 Washington is simultaneously in play to win the division and/or get a top 5 pick.|
|29.||Cowboys||-4||2-5||Dallas is starting to get healthy player back on defense, which is good, because the offense needs the hospital beds for their players. Unrelated: anybody else wonder if Matt Eberflus still has a house in Dallas?|
|30.||Jaguars||--||1-6||For about 20 to 25 minutes, the Jaguars fielded a team that looked capable of playing in the NFL. Unfortunately, that performance was bookended with a veritable disaster of what might be called "sport". The beatings will continue until morale improves.|
|31.||Giants||--||1-6||The Giants and losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Philadelphia Eagles. Name a better combo. Besides, of course, Evan Engram and causing freakin turnovers.|
|32.||Jets||--||0-7||After jumping out to an early 10 point lead, the Jets offense gained just four yards in the entire second half. Who said Adam Gase can't make halftime adjustments?|