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NJPW Write-Up- Hirooki Goto: The Illusion of Change
New Japan Pro Wrestling has shown, throughout its history, the importance of evolution within the industry of pro-wrestling. From a wrestler's starting point as a "Young Lion" within the New Japan system, they undergo a brutal training regiment that instills discipline and endurance amongst the would-be future prospects of NJPW. From there, often times, these young rookies will then be given short exhibition matches in front of the live audience as warm-up matches in bigger cards, usually mixing them in with bigger and more tenured names for them to glean aspects of presentation and in-ring performance from these legends of the industry in the hopes that, in the future, these trainees would be able to carve their own legends. They would then be sent on an overseas excursion to another company usually in the US, Mexico, or Europe to further enhance their skill-set and introduce more tools into their repertoire. Finally, they would make their return under a new persona, sometimes even a new name, and reintroduce themselves to the New Japan audience to show what they have learned.
Mutoh and Chono. Liger. Nagata. Tanahashi. Nakamura. Okada. Naito. White. All names that have gone through the system and have embodied the very aspects of evolution and "growth" through their time as Young Lions and into the NJPW roster properly, with some of these men going through more than one evolution in their careers, ever-changing and evolving to this day as new challenges present themselves. From Super Rookie to King of Strong Style, Stardust Genius to El Ingobernable, and even the growth and evolution of the Switchblade, all of these men have paved a path to the absolute pinnacle of their industry as professional wrestlers through their understanding and adaptation as performers. However, there is one individual that sticks out for the opposite reason. For his many years and long tenure within NJPW, this man has constantly found ways to change and adapt, but with each and every change, his evolution remains in its same, stagnant state. With a career consisting of many peaks and valleys, every effort in change has perpetually locked his career in place, giving an appearance of "settling" rather than "thriving", causing him to seem aimless within a pit of his own creation. How has he failed while these other men succeeded? In the long run, what made the difference? This is an analysis on the "Samurai of Chaos": Hirooki Goto, the Aramusha.
First EvolutionGoto's journey within the New Japan system began in the year 2002, following the traditional path of the Young Lion along with an assortment of talent that would all eventually become world-famous. As Goto fought his way into NJPW, he would begin his career as a Jr. Heavyweight, much unlike the Goto we know today. During this time, Goto would see no small measure of success, competing in the Young Lion Cup in 2005 and emerging victorious before also claiming the IWGP Jr. Heavyweight Tag Team Championship with Minoru Tanaka, in the process joining the oft-understated Control Terrorism Unit led by Jushin "Thunder" Liger. Under Liger's watchful eye, Goto and Minoru would flourish as a team, maintaining a 9 month hold on their Tag Team titles before meeting defeat at the hands of El Samurai and Goto's New Japan Dojo classmate and future "Funky Weapon", Ryusuke Taguchi. After the loss, Goto would go on excursion, looking to broaden his horizons for the next stage of his career.
Goto would find himself in the United States on the first part of his excursion, entering the 2006 World X Cup held by TNA, joined by Liger, Minoru, and Black Tiger prior to his fascination with the bright lights of Roppongi. While Team Japan would come up last in the point total, they would make their mark throughout the tournament, and the time within TNA would prove to be valuable experience for a young, developing Goto. He would take this experience and train it further, working with CMLL for a time to further improve his repertoire, and after almost a year and a half away from his home country, Goto would return to New Japan with a new outlook, a new moveset, and a graduation to the Heavyweight Division...and what would be new at the time would grow to be all too familiar for the future Aramusha.
"Time Itself Is A Circle"In August of 2007, Goto would officially move to the Heavyweight Division, where he would remain to this day, and with the promise he showed in his new weight class, Goto would join the "Real International Super Elite" (R.I.S.E.), a stable formed from the ashes of Chono's "BLACK", led by Shinsuke Nakamura and comprised of talent across the globe such as Giant Bernard, Tomko, Milano Collection AT, and even Goto's old running mates in Minoru and Devitt. In only a few months' time, Goto would live up to his stable, rising through the ranks to challenge for his very first IWGP Heavyweight Championship opportunity against the man who, like the Titan, Atlas, carried the weight of the world on his shoulders as he took it to new heights in the Ace, Hiroshi Tanahashi, and despite all of the improvements he had made, lessons he had learned, and change he had undergone, Goto would come up short in his first attempt at the gold. His first brush at the top championship ending in failure, Goto would refocus himself, renewing his drive heading into 2008.
Goto would start the year aiming for the very top, going heads-up against the legendary Great Muta at Wrestle Kingdom II in what was Mutoh's first match back in NJPW as the Great Muta in almost eight years, putting away the young upstart to reestablish his name in the NJPW scene. Despite this stumble, Goto would be able to recover, going on to win two notable tournaments: the G1 Climax in 2008 and the New Japan Cup in 2009, showcasing his growth by defeating even his own stable leader and setting the stage for another shot at the IWGP Heavyweight Championship...before being met with another brush at failure, falling to Hiroshi Tanahashi once again in his attempt at the title. These three years would set the stage for an unenviable pattern for Hirooki Goto's career, a cycle of rise-fall-rise again repeating itself like clockwork. After all, "Time itself is a circle", and Goto's run in NJPW would begin to see its wheels spin.
Spring Forward, Fall BackGoto would continue this cycle going forward, rising up to challenge NOAH's GHC Heavyweight Champion, Takashi Sugiura before falling and then rising again to win the 2010 New Japan Cup, this time being met by his former stable leader in Shinsuke Nakamura, having abandoned R.I.S.E. in favor of forming a new faction: CHAOS, and in the ensuing struggle, Goto would fall once more. The pattern of "Rise-Fall-Rise Again" had now been firmly established as part of Hirooki Goto's modus operandi, and from here on out, it would be the defining trait of Goto's NJPW run, with a clash with Tanahashi resulting in Goto even deciding to form a tag team with him, setting Goto back to the beginning.
Try as he might, Goto's career would remain trapped by this seemingly-endless pattern, once again going on to the New Japan Cup tournament in 2012 and, with his newly-won IWGP Intercontinental Championship in tow, he would prevail, marking three victories in the New Japan Cup and another chance at the gold, finally defeating Tanahashi in the Finals. This time? The champion would be none other than a former young lion that he teamed with years prior at Wrestle Kingdom V in a losing effort, and now, merely one month after his return from excursion, he stood before Goto as the new pinnacle of NJPW supremacy. Goto would have to face the Rainmaker, Kazuchika Okada, and despite the experience advantage Goto should have, Okada proved to be a prodigy in the ring, deflating perhaps Goto's best chance at the championship and standing alone at the pinnacle. Goto had found himself in an ever familiar position...
A Chaotic EvolutionHirooki Goto would find himself languishing for some time, only able to achieve his previous heights from within the tag division with his friend and High School classmate, Katsuyori Shibata, but as years would progress, a clear rift would develop between the two friends as Goto's stagnation would even seem to irritate Shibata, creating an unspoken friction that would only come to surface fully in 2016. At Wrestle Kingdom 10, Goto would be able to defeat the now-Ingovernable One, Tetsuya Naito, placing him firmly in the No. 1 Contender spot, challenging the winner of perhaps the most important match of New Japan's history up to that point, with Okada finally supplanting Tanahashi and taking his position as the "Ace" of the New Generation. The stage was set for Goto, at the New Beginning in Osaka, to confront his old foe, and in doing so, he had embraced a new regiment. New training. A renewed focus was coming into play, and he would enter the match as an entirely different person, facing down the Rainmaker as a new man himself, discarding the black ropes and gear that he had worn for the last several years and entering with his body painted white, the kanji for "Aramusha" written across his body several times over, truly conjuring the image of the "Fierce Warrior" that he was lauded as, stepping into battle against the Rainmaker...and yet, with all of the wrappings of a new man, the same old cycle would follow as another defeat would send Goto down and out of title contention. In total? This was Goto's eighth attempt at capturing the IWGP Heavyweight Championship, and in all eight attempts, he had come up short.
The Aramusha was now simply a ronin, and in seizing opportunity, two forces would pull at Goto's ear: Tetsuya Naito of Los Ingobernables de Japon, and Kazuchika Okada of CHAOS, each stable asking Goto to join with them for different reasons. Naito would see a growing comparison between himself and Goto: Goto and Naito were both loyal to NJPW "to their core", and yet, as Naito pointed out, they would both be booed, so Naito wished to pull Goto along by the bootstraps. Meanwhile, Okada extended an invite to Goto to join CHAOS, citing that CHAOS would allow him to refocus and that they would welcome Goto within their unit. In a move that would prove to be controversial to many within the NJPW sphere, Goto would fight alongside Okada and join CHAOS in the fight against L.I.J. On one hand, this move seemed to revitalize Goto, giving him a sense of confidence and freedom he hasn't had in years, and in doing so, it allowed Goto to experiment once again, tweaking his moveset and implementing a new finishing move into his arsenal. On the other hand? This move was not without its detractors, many of whom from within NJPW's own sphere.
The Illusion of ChangeIn Marvel Comics, Stan Lee coined a concept called the "Illusion of Change". In short, the "Illusion of Change" is a theory in which the writer is to take a character or subject and allow things to happen that would give the appearance of their world changing, their life progressing with every ebb and flow, but in reality? Status quo would persist, and their world remained almost exactly the same. In NJPW, a world where evolution is paramount to success, Hirooki Goto seems to have fallen victim to this principle...and has been stuck in this never-ending loop for ten entire years. It had become such a point that Tetsuya Naito would point this out, noting a similarity between them both in 2016 shortly after Goto's defeat at the hands of Okada. Naito would point out how both men were loyal to NJPW to their core, and yet both would be booed by the audience, resulting in Naito having to "do something drastic", becoming "El Ingobernable" and regaining the fans' respect. Naito would then pointedly ask, "Goto, what have you changed? You hack, you just changed your gear!?" in response to the comparisons between both men, stating that the comparison was starting to "piss him off".
Naito would not be the only man offended by this comparison, as Shibata, Goto's own classmate would do the same later in the year in their build-up to their Wrestle Kingdom confrontation in 2017, stating that the comparison was no longer valid due to how Goto's stagnation seemingly led to complacency, pointing out how he was a "man who didn't know what he wanted", and while Goto claimed he wanted the IWGP Title, he willingly joined a stable to be "his goon". Shibata would also be critical of his inconsistency, with Goto stating he was "having fun" within CHAOS while also claiming he would take his "anger" out on Shibata, leading Shibata to exclaim, "What are you actually saying?!" before finally decrying Goto's constant "evolutions", asking Goto to point out a time when he was at his so-called best, yet he always needs to "revive" into something. In Goto's constant chase for evolution and reinvention, Shibata has proven to be the perfect inverse, growing through NJPW's Young Lion system before abandoning NJPW to pursue freelance work elsewhere and MMA only to return with the hatred and disdain of the fans and the locker room aimed directly at him... but with stellar performance after performance, a willingness to sacrifice himself for his art, and a form of contrition and newfound loyalty to NJPW, Shibata would evolve as a person, changing almost nothing of his presentation and merely growing and learning through the years, adapting with new knowledge and experiences. Goto, however, would remain stuck in an unending illusion of change, altering facets of himself from his moveset to his attire and even his weight-class and division... only to find himself in the exact same position year-in and year-out as NJPW's true "evolutionaries" would continue to take center-stage...
A Slice of RealityPerhaps the most poignant reminder of Goto's state on the NJPW roster came in the form of the "Switchblade" Jay White, who had already blazed a path to glory to become the IWGP Heavyweight Champion earlier in 2019. Goto would find himself in the crosshairs of Jay White after his loss to Okada at Madison Square Garden, and in blistering fashion, White would constantly tear down Goto's repeated failed attempts at capturing the IWGP Heavyweight Title, noting that, in his view, Goto couldn't "hack it" in the ring with him, and in a series of matches, White would only take one loss against Goto at the G1 Climax, while defeating him at Wrestling Hinokuni and, perhaps most importantly, at Power Struggle, stuffing Goto's shot at history and preventing him from entering the Double Gold Dash. In the end, Jay White's words were proven correct, and the audience reaction to Goto in high stakes situations would show the proof: Goto had slowly, but surely, proven to the audience that he was the disappointment that everyone believed he was, and despite his accomplishments as a multi-time holder of the NEVER Openweight Championship and a "tournament specialist" of sorts, having won three New Japan Cups, one G1 Climax, and almost always being in the running to make the Finals in the G1, he was simply unable to ascend to that next level, unlike his peers; particularly both the man he was now working under within CHAOS and the man who had warned him about the need to make a true "change".
While harsh in their words, Shibata's and Naito's criticisms of Goto tell the tale of a man who once stood as a potential pillar within the NJPW hierarchy, would suffer a defeat, go on to reinvent himself, and suffer even further losses. Before long, all Goto would know throughout his NJPW tenure is the never-ending cycle of "Rise-Fall-Rise Again", whether it was from his ascension from the Jr. ranks into the Heavyweight division, or from his numerous runs and attempts at Heavyweight Championship gold. At some point, Hirooki Goto lost his way, and while one can occasionally see sparks of fire in Goto's eyes (Particularly in defense of Shibata), at his core, it is the same Goto. All of the peers before him have made true strides in evolution not just in look or moveset, but in personality, showcasing their growth not as wrestlers and warriors, but as people through the years. Perhaps the signs were painted all over his body back in 2016: Hirooki Goto had ceased his own growth as a man, placing an unnecessary emphasis on the "warrior spirit" and rather than letting this persona grow with him as an individual, Goto would stunt his own growth, chasing the need to live up to the image of the "Aramusha" as opposed to allowing himself the opportunity to grow into the man that he was.
Life's Greatest TeacherThrough failure and defeat, one can learn a lot about themselves. How they handle adversity. How they adapt and overcome the adversity, and most importantly, what lessons can be learned from the adversity. In NJPW, even the greatest of their in-ring performers are not exempt from this, in some cases even suffering the most brutal of defeats at their absolute peak that sends them on a spiral of self-doubt to the point of abject uncertainty in their future before clawing and climbing their way back to greatness once again. This is the growth and development of the character through their struggles and hardships, culminating in the character finally reaching the completion of their goal, their journey coming to an absolution as the storyline is resolved. It is the essence of what makes the upper echelon of NJPW's roster feel so special, whether it's Tanahashi's struggle to keep the company hoisted upon his back, Okada's struggle to become the Ace and usurp Tanahashi before finally doing so four years later, or even Naito's seemingly-perpetual struggle to finally become the "Shuyaku", confronting his nemesis at the biggest stage three times over six years before all of his development as both a person and as an in-ring performer could lead him to the apex of his potential, achieving history that no one will ever be able to take from him...and yet, Goto has missed an important factor in his own growth.
In all of their defeats, Okada, Tanahashi, Naito... even individuals like Omega, Ibushi, and White would take their losses to heart. In some ways, their losses alter and shape them, almost as if it would scar them for their failure. Goto, despite his climbs to the top of the ladder, has not taken his losses quite as harshly, opting instead to join forces with the men who have beaten him rather than striving to become better than them. While they have all held firm to their own belief in who they are in one form or fashion to overcome their struggle, Goto has adopted a firm mindset of "If You Can't Beat 'Em...", drawing the ire of not only his peers but the fans, and with Goto joining CHAOS barely a month after his defeat at the hands of Okada, it firmly established his place on the totem pole: Goto remains beneath the crown, only able to bask in its glisten from a safe distance lest he shield his eyes, but never able to try it on for himself, serving under the King but never alongside him in the grand hierarchy of NJPW, and so long as Goto refuses to evolve as not just a "fierce warrior" but as a person, the "Aramusha" may never reach the ascendant heights that he seemed so destined for at the start of his career. Perhaps it isn't all bad? Goto is still capable of putting on a show, particularly where his focus has been in regards to the NEVER Openweight Championship, seemingly desiring to take up the mantle left behind by Katsuyori Shibata, and in big-match situations, the "Aramusha" excels to put on a thriller such as against KENTA and Shingo Takagi earlier this year. Despite this, Goto's career looks to be on track as remaining a grand "What If" in the annuls of NJPW history, and until the day the samurai comes to sheathe his blade, the lingering cries of hope will either roar into an upheaval of joy at the fulfillment of a prophecy long-forgotten... or diminish into the very same complacency that has marred the lengthy career of Hirooki Goto.
(Thank you for making it to the end. This is the part of a Youtube video where they would ask you to like, comment, and subscribe, but I will post a few links to my previous write-ups, and if anyone is interested, I will post a link to my Patreon as well if anyone wishes to contribute. I know that this is an absolutely trying time, so I'm not asking nor expecting anyone to contribute to my Patreon page at all, but if you choose to at all, I'd like to simply say thank you! Hope all of you are doing well. We'll get through this, and if my write-up was able to help provide a brief distraction from the chaos around us all, then I'm grateful to be able to do that for you all. Once more, if you have any suggestions, ideas, comments, critiques, or questions, feel free to leave them in the comments below. Thank you!)
SARS-CoV-2 in light of recent scientific research - an overview
SARS-CoV-2 is less lethal than initially predicted: a peer-reviewed meta-analysis from October 2020 from the Bulletin of the World Health Organization found the median corrected infection fatality ratio (IFR) to be 0.23%, in accord with other recent peer-reviewed sources that found an IFR of 0.30% and 0.15-0.20% (note, however, that if the WHO's statistics from October 2020 are trustworthy, they entail an even lower global IFR of 0.13%). This online calculator allows you to estimate your personal risk of being hospitalized and/or dying if infected with the virus. The fatality rate has three important attributes:
- Rapid and massive decline since February-April 2020 due to the harvesting effect, as well as ongoing progress in treatment. The recently published meta-analysis that found the case fatality ratio (CFR) for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to be higher than that for influenza types A and B (6.5% vs. 6% vs. 3%, respectively) uses data only from up until 26 April 2020, and thus fails to account for the rapid and massive decline in fatality rates for hospitalized COVID-19 patients since April. University of Oxford's CEBM noted that "the CFR as of the 4th of August stood at around 1.5%, having fallen from over 6% six weeks earlier";
- Fatality statistics fail to distinguish between dying of COVID-19 and dying with COVID-19. The CDC data show that 94% of COVID-19 deaths had in fact on average "2.6 additional conditions or causes per death";
- Heavy age-stratification (for the most comprehensive and recent - November 2020, forthcoming in Nature - peer-reviewed breakdown of IFR by age group, see table S3 in O'Driscoll et al., 2020; see also figure 2 in Spiegelhalter, 2020 displaying the fatality rates from Covid-19 superimposed on background annual normal risk of dying). Scenario 5 in Table 1 from the CDC's 10th of September update also shows the current best estimates of IFR by age bracket:
-0-19 years: 0.00003 = 99,997/100,000 infected survive
-20-49 years: 0.0002 = 99,980/100,000 infected survive
-50-69 years: 0.005 = 99,500/100,000 infected survive
-70+ years: 0.054 = 94,600/100,000 infected survive
There are preliminary reports that claim that a minority of people might experience "Long Covid", but firm conclusions cannot be drawn, given:
- The often poor quality of their research design (lack of randomized & stratified-by-age samples, lack of control for confounds such as damage induced by therapy itself or by prior co-morbidities, lack of proper longitudinal designs to assess assumed persistence of complications 6-12 months after infection).
- The existence of published research demonstrating that the body can repair the damage induced by the virus even in the small minority of patients who develop severe COVID-19 infection.
Twenty three respected public health scientists have proposed a balanced approach that acknowledges the futility of trying to eradicate the virus at this stage in the pandemic and the importance of a return to living vibrant social lives, in full cognizance of (a) the actual level of risk posed by the virus, and (b) the unintended consequences of abandoning the default way of managing all other pandemics and instead addressing COVID-19 using untested foreign ideas that are unleashing a difficult-to-reverse "pandemic of authoritarianism". Fear amplified by social media through "availability cascades" severely undermines people's ability to appraise evidence, "weigh risks in context", and decide policies commensurate with those risks - the fast-growing controversy over the wisdom, ethics, effectiveness, and political implications of mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions such as masks, social distancing, and lockdowns is a case in point. In response to this growing controversy, in October 2020 two WHO officials urged world leaders to stop using lockdowns as their primary means of control, whereas the Great Barrington Declaration pleaded for a shift to "focused protection" for the remaining of the pandemic.